2012 set to be a big year for the US and China

We are set for a year of political upheaval in 2012 as the US and China, not to mention a whole host of other countries, hold elections or change their leadership.

Taiwan has already headed to the polls, returning the broadly China-friendly Ma Ying-jeou to office in a move likely to see cross-Strait relations continue to warm. This will be welcome news for both China and the US as both begin to prepare for their own political changes later in the year.

Of course China's leadership handover is shrouded in far more mystery than the mudslinging, all-access reality TV spectacle that is a US presidential election, but it will be the events in Beijing and Washington towards the end of this year that broadly shape the outlook for the whole world for the next few years.

Does it matter?

Looking on from theUK, it can be easy to feel a sense of detachment. Unable to participate in either process, why should we concern ourselves with events half-way around the world?

There is a simple answer: it affects British interests. Of course theUKhas long had close ties with theUS, and a great deal of work is being done to further the relationship with China. Receptive heads of government in both countries will make our job far easier when it comes to pushing for progress when it comes to issues such as climate change, the economy and human rights.

There are lessons to be learnt from the past. Back in 2008 David Cameron, before he became Prime Minister, embarrassingly backed John McCain's failed White House bid. Rumours persist that Obama does not hold Cameron in high regard to this day.

But while direct interference is obviously not a good idea, it can do no harm to look at what potential changes in the US and China might mean forBritain.

A shift to liberalism?

From a liberal perspective, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. Obama should win a second-term; it tends to take a monumental disaster for the Americans to reject an incumbent president.

With the experience of his difficult first term and the knowledge that he will have just four more years in the White House, he may be in a position to push his progressive social welfare agenda more aggressively. Of course social welfare is something we in theUKhave plenty of experience in.

It would be a worry if Obama was somehow ousted. Although theUSidea of a centre-left government is somewhat different to our own, if the Republicans did win the White House, it would leave right-wing governments in the US, the UK,Germany and France.

During a time when policymakers are looking to find an international consensus to rebuild the global financial system, the lack of balance would be worrying. Here in the UK, we must wait another three years for the chance to vote in a new national government.

China's new leaders

InChinatoo, there is hope that a leadership handover might result in a more progressive government. At this stage we can only speculate on the beliefs and political leanings of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, who are widely expected to assume the posts of President and Premier respectively.

Li Keqiang is of particular interest. It will be no easy task replacing the immensely popular Wen Jiabao, but Li's humble background has raised hopes that he might take action to addressChina's growing inequality problem.

It is one of the strange contradictions of world politics thatChina's single party state probably holds a wider range of opinion than theUS's two parties. While Obama and his Republican rival (probably Mitt Romney) will spend 2012 fighting for the middle ground, only really disagreeing over the minutiae of policy, in China the struggle behind the scenes will be far more disparate.

Within the senior ranks of the Chinese government is everyone from old-school Maoists to liberal reformers. For them, 2012 will be about positioning themselves to best gain influence within the new government.

The most likely outcome will be something of a compromise, leading to a continuation ofChina's 'peaceful rise' policy that has been so successful under Hu Jintao.

But if Li, as many are speculating, falls into the category of liberal reformer, we might seeChinaopen up more to international organizations and look to address internal problems with more transparency. This can only be a good thing as China's global influence increases by the year.

China-bashing

It could also open the door more cooperation between the UK and China, not to mention help improve relations between theUSandChina, which is of huge importance to everyone.

There have been some worrying signs in this regard recently. As the Republican Party decide who to nominate to run for the presidency, on leading candidate suffered a series of attacks due to his background inChina.

John Huntsman was the former US ambassador toChina, the sort of job one would think might be excellent experience for a run at the presidency. But instead his international perspective has been mocked by many within the often insular Republican Party.

One particularly malicious online video suggested that his background inChina, as well as his adopted Chinese daughter, meant he was unpatriotic - about as bad an accusation one can level at a US politician.

It is a worrying sign, but with the US economy in crisis many blame China's rise for American problems. We must hope that the US election this year doesn't degenerate into 'China-bashing'. Of course there is appeal in finding someone to blame for all your problems, but if this is used to gain political leverage it could damage the US-China relationship.

So back in the UK we have plenty of reason to keep a close eye on events in Beijing and Washington in 2012. Let's just hope that any changes in leadership bring us politicians willing to engage internationally for the greater good.