Will 2012 the Year of the Dragon be a peaceful and prosperous year?

The Year of Dragon will come on 23 Jan this year. In Chinese thinking the Year of Dragon will be a good year. But for the global economy and global politics: "Will 2012 the year of Dragon be a peaceful and prosperous year? " No economist or political scientist can predict the future 100% totally correct. I also can't predict 100% correctly, but here are my honest predictions. I wish 2012 the year of Dragon will be a peaceful and prosperous year for everyone.

The Global Economy

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the world economy had returned back to stable and in mild recovery. Although the global recession has not completely passed, the world economy is very likely to enter an initial recovery stage in 2012. USA will also remain as the global biggest economy. The US dollar will still remain a strong, stable and safe international currency.

The European Union Sovereign Debt Financial Crisis will remain a hot issue in this 2012. However, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy had said in the bilateral Franco-German summit that by the end of this January a fresh European Treaty of the eurozone 17 will be reached. It will create a new eurozone 17 agreement to tackle this EU sovereign debt crisis and to reinforce budget discipline in the eurozone.

Let us rethink the definition of economic recession. Economic recession is a period where there must be significant and persistent falling of the general price level. At the same time there is also negative growth of GNP in the major global economies. But if we see 2011, there have not any persistent falling of the general price level in major global economies.Chinahad a growth rate of 9% in 2011. In the Eurozone, it was about 2% to 3% average growth rate. TheUShad 3% growth rate in 2011. In other words there has not been any significant global recession in the global economies in 2011. So most economists see 2012 not as a year of deep recession but as one when mild economic recovery will begin.

Global Poltics

In 2011, we had a 8 month civil war inLibyaas well as mass protests inEgypt. But the Arab Spring was confined to a small region of the world. If we look at the details, in 2011 worldwide global peace was only affected a little by the situation in theMiddle EastandNorth Africa. Even oil prices remained fairly stable. This regional unrest should not affect the global economy too much.

The nuclear issue is still a concern, but there is no imminent threat of a nuclear war. Of course the cost is so high, and no modern country wants to start a nuclear conflict. There isNorth Korea, but hopefully this country will undergo a peaceful liberal transformation under new leader Kim Jong-Un.

China

China's economy will be expected by most analysts to achieve 7% or 8% growth this year. In 2012 autumnChinawill have a change of national leaders. This change of new leadership will turn out a new time forChina's further economic and political development. I believeChinawill continue keep her peaceful rise policy.Chinawill maintain continuous political stability. However, the big gap between the rich and the poor of the cities and rural villages is still a concern for social stability inChina.Chinaneeds to deal with many new challenges in 2012.

Britain

The British economy can do better and come out of the final stage of economic recession in 2012. But the big gap between the rich and poor will remain our concern. Unemployment will still remain high at 8%. But there will be new jobs created too in the private sector. New business opportunities will arise too in 2012. Britainwill move ahead in closer trade partnership with her major global partners such asUSA, EU,India,China,Africa,Middle EastandJapan. Innovation, improved efficiency and global cooperation areBritain's right direction this new century.

European Union sovereign Debt Crisis

This is not easily solved. It is a complicated issue. But as said as above, the Eurozone 17 will use every effective measure to put this crisis under control. The Euro is at a low rate but shouldn't fall too much more. Hopefully this Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will be under control in 2012.

In fact, the modern world is sometimes beyond economists and political analysts prediction. There are always new changes and unexpected issues coming out each year. But an opportunity always arises out of each crisis. This global financial crisis and economic recession was caused by some irresponsible investment bankers and incompetent, short-sighted, right-wing politicians.

As a Liberal and Social Democrat , I think it is the right time the world shifts national politics towards a centre-left social-democratic direction. In other words, the electorate should give the mandate of the government to the Social Democratic Party and Liberal Democrats to promote a fairer and efficient society for every person. Today it is essential that corporate social responsibilty should be on the agenda of every big business.

In conclusion, 2012 - the year of Dragon - will be the year the global economy will show mild positive economic growth. Unemployment will still remain at high level. The reason of this is that many big businesses want to attain high profits by employing less staff. It is not because there is recession in the global economy. Most analysts think the world at large in 2012 will be a peaceful year. Let us go ahead with the best wishes that this 2012 Year of Dragon is a peaceful and prosperous one.